Very Large Hail & High Winds Expected Today With J7409 Weather. watch
Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are expected across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be noted across the Gulf Coast to the southern Middle Atlantic.
Central High Plains
Large-scale pattern is forecast to change little across the western US through the day1 period. Broad upper ridging will hold across the Great Basin with seasonally strong mid-level flow extending from WA/OR, across the northern Rockies into the central Plains. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will affect the High Plains later today, however steep mid-level lapse rates persist across this region within broad northwesterly flow regime. Strong diurnal heating will once again contribute to significant buoyancy in the lee of the Rockies prior to convective initiation. In the absence of a meaningful short-wave trough, it appears surface heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. It appears thunderstorms should develop by 21-22z as convective temperatures are breached. Latest CAMs support this scenario with scattered convection developing by late afternoon from southeast MT-eastern WY/CO. Forecast soundings across this region strongly favor supercells and steep lapse rates/bulk shear appear supportive of very large hail. Local hail algorithm generates hail in excess of 2" with robust convection across the High Plains again this afternoon. Given the stronger shear expected later today, compared to Tuesday, there is reason to believe supercells may maintain their character a bit longer than yesterday. For these reasons have increased severe probabilities to account for a potentially more widespread severe event from eastern WY into eastern CO/northwest KS. While initial activity should prove productive in generating hail, damaging winds will become more common if an MCS evolves later in the evening along nose of LLJ.
Gulf States/Southeast-Middle Atlantic Coast
Weak surface boundary will sag southeast during the day, extending from VA-Carolinas-central Gulf States by 18z. This boundary will serve as the focus for convection within a high-PW air mass characterized by generally weak shear. While lapse rates are not particularly steep, Isolated damaging winds could be noted with short-lived wet micro bursts.
The frontal boundaries are expected to move rather slowly through Thursday
as they merge over the eastern U.S. This pattern will promote unsettled
weather along the Southeast U.S. and the Florida Peninsula. Gradual
improvement in the weather is expected for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
While the heat will be abating some from the south central to southeast
U.S. this week compared to recent days, it will be building across the
Southwest through the middle of the week as the upper level ridge builds
westward. An excessive heat warning is in effect for the lower elevations
of southern Arizona to central California for afternoon high temperatures
in the 105 to 115 degree range, and overnight lows only in the middle 80s
to near 90 degrees for the warmest locations. Heat advisories are in
effect for locations closer to the coast for central and southern
California. The hot temperatures across the Southwest are expected to
continue through the remainder of this week.
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